probabilities

According to 538 the probability for Hillary to win Iowa is currently 79%.
The probability for Ted Cruz to win in Iowa is 52%.

The probability that Britain will leave the EU is around 33% according to betting markets.

And the probability of rain tomorrow in Nassau, Bahamas is 10% according to wunderground.

The question is what "probability" means for each individual case above; I guess The Matrix has 100 different programs labeled "Nassau, January 21, 2016" in its archive and only 10 of them with rain ... but for some reason the programming director recently likes to pick one of the rainy versions (*).


(*) added later: It's raining.

2 comments:

Lee said...

So in MWI could God count all outcomes to see if the probability of Britain leaving the EU really is about 33%?

wolfgang said...

Unfortunately, the mwi gets probabilities wrong (at least if one uses simple counting) ... but in The Matrix it works.