too little, too late

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predict it

I did not watch the debate last night, but I did check out predictit.org a few hours afterwards.
I think prediction markets are a good way to get a picture of upcoming elections and events, even if they are far from perfect.



A few things stand out relative to the dominant media stories imho:
i) Elizabeth Warren is currently the front runner, ahead of Joe Biden; this was already the case before the debate yesterday.
ii) Andrew Yang, who gets almost no media coverage, is ahead of Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg etc. (*)
iii) Cory Booker et al. are below Hillary Clinton, which I consider the "noise level" ...

As for the general election, which is more than a year away, the best predictor seems to be the economy (and the stock market) - if it continues to hold up and a recession in the US can be avoided, then it would be a big surprise if the current president should lose.


(*) Mayor Pete has his roots in Malta and is the favorite candidate here.